Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curves

Slide 15 of 18

Notes:

Figure 9. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for the January 1999 APRT for grafts (117) and fistulas (23) combined and grafts alone . Each data set was analyzed using separate tests during which the VAPR cutoff point was varied from 0.2 to 0.6 while all other testing parameters remained unchanged. Area under the ROC curve corresponds to the probability of correctly ranking the two test alternatives, in this case access patency or access failure. Our results indicate that for a single APRT, there is an 81% probability of correctly predicting graft failure and for grafts and AV fistulas combined, the probability is 85%.